BRICS 2026: India’s Leadership and the Emerging Global Order
Spiritual Wellness Strategist | Strategic Forecaster & Global Trends Analyst | Vedic Astrology Researcher | Author & Speaker | Advisor to Global Leaders Since 1990
BRICS 2026: The Strategic Question Behind India’s Leadership
When India hosts the 18th BRICS Summit in New Delhi on September 12–13, 2026, much of the attention will naturally focus on diplomatic meetings, political statements and summit announcements.
But the more important question is not what happens during two days in New Delhi.
The larger question is what India’s leadership of BRICS could mean for the direction of the global system over the next several years.
The international environment is changing.
Global trade is being reorganized. Supply chains are being reassessed. Artificial intelligence is becoming an economic and strategic capability. Digital payment systems are evolving. Competition over technology, energy, critical minerals and strategic infrastructure is becoming increasingly important.
At the same time, emerging economies are seeking greater influence in institutions that were largely designed during an earlier distribution of global economic power.
This is where BRICS becomes strategically relevant.
BRICS is no longer simply a grouping of four emerging economies.
Its expansion has created a much broader platform representing major economies and developing countries across Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America.
That expansion creates opportunity.
It also creates complexity.
The members do not share identical economic interests, political systems, foreign-policy priorities or relationships with the United States, Europe, China and other major powers.
Therefore, I do not believe the future of BRICS should be understood through the simplistic lens of “BRICS versus the West.”
The more important possibility is different:
BRICS could become one of the mechanisms through which emerging and developing economies gain greater influence over trade, finance, technology, development and global governance.
India’s 2026 chairship therefore deserves to be viewed not merely as a diplomatic responsibility, but as a strategic opportunity.
My Pre-Summit Strategic Forecast
Before the New Delhi Summit begins, I believe there are several developments worth watching closely.
My base-case view is that BRICS is unlikely to suddenly become a unified geopolitical bloc or replace the existing international system.
A more realistic and potentially more consequential development would be the gradual strengthening of practical cooperation among diverse emerging economies.
The real story may therefore develop through infrastructure, institutions and economic relationships rather than dramatic geopolitical announcements.
I would watch seven areas particularly closely.
- BRICS Is Likely to Become More Influential Without Becoming a Unified Bloc
The first mistake would be to assume that greater BRICS influence requires complete political alignment.
It does not.
The expanded grouping contains countries with very different economic structures, strategic priorities and relationships with other major powers.
That diversity is a challenge, but it can also become an advantage.
BRICS does not necessarily need to agree on every international issue.
It needs to identify areas where cooperation creates mutual benefit.
Trade.
Investment.
Technology.
Financial connectivity.
Energy.
Health.
Agriculture.
Infrastructure.
Development.
If BRICS can concentrate on areas of practical convergence while allowing members to maintain their independent foreign policies, its influence could grow without becoming a rigid political alliance.
My expectation is therefore that the most sustainable form of BRICS influence will come from cooperation rather than ideological uniformity.
- Payment Connectivity May Matter More Than a Common BRICS Currency
One of the most frequently discussed ideas surrounding BRICS is the possibility of a common currency.
I believe this receives more attention than it deserves.
Creating a genuinely shared currency would require enormous monetary, financial, institutional and political coordination among countries with very different economic systems.
That is not a simple undertaking.
A more practical question is whether BRICS countries can make cross-border trade and payments more efficient.
Payment interoperability, greater use of local currencies, improved settlement mechanisms and stronger financial connectivity could potentially reduce transaction friction without requiring a common currency.
For businesses, this could ultimately matter more.
The strategic significance of BRICS may therefore develop through payment infrastructure rather than through the creation of a single BRICS currency.
My forecast is simple:
Watch the payment system, not just the currency headline.
If BRICS can make cross-border transactions faster, cheaper and more accessible, that could gradually change how businesses interact across emerging markets.
- AI Is Becoming a Question of Economic and Strategic Sovereignty
Artificial intelligence is often presented as a technology story.
I believe it is becoming much more than that.
AI is increasingly connected to productivity, manufacturing, financial services, healthcare, education, public administration, national security and scientific research.
That means countries with stronger AI capabilities could gain advantages across multiple sectors.
The strategic questions are therefore becoming larger:
Who controls advanced computing infrastructure?
Who has access to data?
Who develops the underlying technologies?
Who establishes standards?
Who controls critical AI platforms?
Who develops the skills required to participate in the AI economy?
And how can developing economies avoid becoming permanently dependent on technologies developed elsewhere?
These questions are particularly relevant to BRICS.
The Global South does not simply need access to AI applications.
It needs the ability to build capabilities around AI.
India has an important role to play here because of its technology sector, digital infrastructure, scientific talent and large pool of technical professionals.
I expect AI cooperation to become an increasingly important part of the BRICS conversation.
The deeper issue will not simply be how countries use AI.
It will be who has the capability to shape the AI economy.
- Supply-Chain Resilience Will Become a Strategic Economic Priority
For decades, global business strategy often emphasized maximum efficiency.
The lowest-cost supplier.
The largest production centre.
The most efficient logistics route.
But geopolitical disruptions, pandemics, trade restrictions and strategic competition have changed the calculation.
Businesses increasingly need to think about resilience as well as efficiency.
Where are critical components produced?
How dependent is a supply chain on one country?
What happens if transportation routes are disrupted?
Where can production be diversified?
Can companies maintain access to essential resources during geopolitical stress?
These questions are becoming central to economic strategy.
For BRICS countries, this creates an important area of potential cooperation.
The grouping includes major producers, consumers, energy exporters, agricultural economies, manufacturing centres and resource-rich countries.
That combination creates opportunities for greater economic connectivity.
My expectation is that supply-chain resilience will become more strategically important than many conventional trade headlines suggest.
For business leaders, the lesson is equally important:
The cheapest supply chain is not necessarily the most strategically resilient supply chain.
- India’s Strategic Advantage Is Flexibility
India occupies a distinctive position in the international system.
It is a major BRICS member.
It is also a significant economic and strategic partner of the United States and Europe.
It has relationships across the developing world.
It participates in multiple international institutions and strategic groupings.
This gives India an unusual degree of strategic flexibility.
But flexibility is not the same as avoiding difficult choices.
India will increasingly need to balance economic opportunity, national security, technological development, energy requirements and geopolitical relationships.
The strength of India’s position may therefore lie in strategic autonomy rather than permanent alignment with any single power centre.
For BRICS, this could be particularly important.
India can potentially act as a bridge between different economic and geopolitical interests.
It can support greater representation for developing economies without necessarily advocating the replacement of the entire existing international system.
It can deepen relationships with BRICS members while continuing to engage extensively with the United States, Europe and other major economies.
That balancing ability could become one of India’s most important strategic assets.
- India-China Relations Will Remain a Test of BRICS Pragmatism
India and China are both central to BRICS.
They are also strategic competitors.
Their relationship contains significant economic opportunities alongside serious strategic differences.
That reality should not be ignored.
At the same time, competition does not eliminate the possibility of selective cooperation.
Countries can compete in one area while cooperating in another.
That is increasingly becoming a defining characteristic of international relations.
The important question for BRICS is therefore not whether India and China will agree on everything.
They will not.
The more realistic question is whether they can maintain sufficient space for practical cooperation where their interests overlap.
India’s approach is likely to require a combination of engagement, strategic caution and national-interest protection.
That may be uncomfortable.
But it is also realistic.
A successful BRICS does not require India and China to become strategic allies.
It requires them to remain capable of working together in areas where cooperation is mutually beneficial.
That distinction is important.
- BRICS Will Be Tested by Implementation, Not Declarations
This may ultimately be the most important issue of all.
International summits are capable of producing ambitious declarations.
The harder task is implementation.
The credibility of BRICS will increasingly depend on whether cooperation produces practical results.
Can members improve cross-border payments?
Can trade become more resilient?
Can investment flows increase?
Can businesses gain better access to emerging markets?
Can developing economies gain stronger technological capabilities?
Can members cooperate on AI?
Can energy and supply-chain cooperation become more resilient?
Can BRICS institutions become more effective as membership expands?
These questions matter more than the number of statements issued at a summit.
Political declarations can signal direction.
Institutions and working mechanisms create lasting influence.
That is why India’s chairship should ultimately be judged not only by what is announced in New Delhi, but by what remains useful after India’s chairmanship moves forward.
The Global South Is Seeking Greater Influence
The rise of BRICS is part of a larger development.
Emerging and developing economies increasingly want a stronger voice in global decision-making.
This does not mean that the Global South is a single political bloc.
It is not.
India has different interests from Brazil.
Brazil has different interests from the Gulf economies.
African economies have different priorities from Asian manufacturing centres.
The diversity is real.
But there are also areas of common interest.
Greater representation.
Development finance.
Technology access.
Trade opportunities.
Energy security.
Infrastructure.
Food security.
Health.
Climate finance.
Digital transformation.
This creates a potentially important role for BRICS.
The grouping can provide a platform where diverse countries attempt to coordinate around selected areas of common interest.
Its success will depend on whether it can convert that diversity into practical cooperation rather than allowing differences to prevent action.
BRICS Does Not Need to Replace the West
Another important distinction is necessary.
The rise of BRICS does not automatically mean the decline or replacement of the United States and Europe.
That is too simplistic.
BRICS countries themselves maintain extensive economic, technological, investment and diplomatic relationships with Western economies.
India is a particularly clear example.
Its BRICS participation and its relationships with the United States, Europe and other partners are not mutually exclusive.
The world is becoming more interconnected, not less.
Countries can cooperate with one group while competing with another.
They can maintain strategic partnerships in one area and strategic differences in another.
Therefore, I see the rise of BRICS less as the replacement of one global system by another and more as part of a transition toward a more distributed global order.
Power is increasingly spread across multiple economic and technological centres.
That does not mean the old centres disappear.
It means the international system becomes more complex.
And complexity requires better strategic thinking.
Three Possible Futures for BRICS
Scenario One: A More Practical BRICS
In this scenario, BRICS concentrates on areas where members have clear common interests.
Payments.
Trade.
Investment.
Technology.
Energy.
Health.
Agriculture.
Infrastructure.
Development.
The grouping becomes more institutionally useful without attempting to become a rigid political alliance.
This is the scenario I consider most constructive.
Scenario Two: A More Politically Confrontational BRICS
In this scenario, BRICS increasingly becomes a platform for challenging Western influence and existing global institutions.
This could increase its geopolitical visibility.
But political confrontation could also make practical cooperation more difficult.
A grouping can become louder without necessarily becoming more effective.
Scenario Three: Expansion Without Sufficient Integration
A larger BRICS can increase representation.
But greater membership also means greater diversity.
If institutional mechanisms do not evolve with that expansion, decision-making could become more complicated.
The grouping could become larger without becoming proportionately more effective.
My Base-Case Forecast
My base-case expectation is between these extremes.
I do not expect BRICS to become a single geopolitical bloc.
I also do not expect it to remain merely symbolic.
The more likely path is gradual institutional and economic development.
BRICS could become increasingly relevant through selected areas of practical cooperation while its members continue to maintain different political and strategic relationships.
This may be less dramatic than the idea of a completely new world order appearing overnight.
But it may ultimately be more consequential.
The biggest changes in international systems often happen gradually.
Through payment networks.
Trade relationships.
Investment flows.
Technology partnerships.
Supply chains.
Financial institutions.
Standards.
Infrastructure.
These systems can change behaviour without producing one dramatic geopolitical event.
What Business Leaders Should Watch
For entrepreneurs, executives and investors, BRICS should not be viewed only as a geopolitical story.
It could increasingly affect business strategy.
I would watch seven indicators.
- Cross-Border Payments
Do payment systems become more connected and efficient?
- Trade Facilitation
Does BRICS make it easier for businesses to access member markets?
- Supply-Chain Diversification
Do companies increasingly diversify production and sourcing across BRICS economies?
- AI Cooperation
Does cooperation develop around AI infrastructure, skills, research, standards and responsible deployment?
- Investment Connectivity
Do financial institutions and investors gain better mechanisms for cross-border investment?
- Energy and Critical Resources
Does cooperation develop around energy security, critical minerals and resilient infrastructure?
- Institutional Effectiveness
Can an expanded BRICS remain capable of producing practical outcomes?
These indicators are likely to tell us more about the future of BRICS than political headlines alone.
What India Should Aim to Leave Behind
India’s BRICS chairship provides an opportunity to demonstrate a particular model of international leadership.
Not confrontation for its own sake.
Not alignment for its own sake.
Not expansion for its own sake.
But practical cooperation.
India can potentially help BRICS become more:
Practical.
Inclusive.
Implementation-oriented.
Economically connected.
Technologically capable.
Responsive to developing economies.
The real measure of leadership will therefore be what survives beyond the summit.
If mechanisms continue working after India’s chairship advances, that would matter.
If businesses gain meaningful opportunities, that would matter.
If emerging economies gain greater technological and financial capacity, that would matter.
If BRICS can manage significant differences while still producing cooperation, that would matter.
The Deeper Shift: From a Binary World to a More Distributed One
The most important lesson from BRICS may ultimately extend beyond BRICS itself.
The international system is becoming more complex.
The old assumption that countries must always belong to one clearly defined geopolitical camp is becoming less useful.
A country can be a trading partner and a strategic competitor.
It can cooperate on technology while disagreeing on security.
It can participate in BRICS while maintaining strong relationships with the United States and Europe.
It can pursue national interests while supporting multilateral institutions.
This is not necessarily inconsistency.
It can be strategic flexibility.
For leaders, businesses and investors, understanding this complexity will become increasingly important.
The future may belong less to rigid alliances and more to flexible networks of cooperation.
India’s Strategic Opportunity
India enters the 2026 BRICS chairship at an important moment.
Its economic scale is increasing.
Its technology capabilities are expanding.
Its international relationships are becoming broader.
Its role in the Global South is receiving greater attention.
And its strategic autonomy gives it room to work across different parts of the international system.
But opportunity also brings responsibility.
India will need to demonstrate that diplomatic leadership can translate into practical outcomes.
It will need to manage differences among diverse BRICS members.
It will need to balance cooperation with strategic competition.
And it will need to ensure that the interests of developing economies remain connected to the larger global conversation.
That is a demanding form of leadership.
It may also be one of the most relevant forms of leadership for an increasingly multipolar world.
Final Perspective
The BRICS Summit in New Delhi will last only two days.
The strategic forces behind it will last much longer.
Global trade will continue to change.
Artificial intelligence will continue to reshape economies.
Digital finance will continue to evolve.
Supply chains will continue to diversify.
Emerging economies will continue to seek greater influence.
And major powers will continue to cooperate and compete at the same time.
That is why BRICS 2026 should not be judged simply by the headlines surrounding the summit.
The more important question is whether the grouping can gradually build practical mechanisms that reflect the changing distribution of global economic and political influence.
India has an opportunity to help shape that process.
But the outcome will depend on more than diplomacy.
It will depend on implementation, institutional effectiveness and the ability to convert strategic ambition into practical cooperation.
My base-case view is therefore clear:
BRICS is unlikely to replace the existing global order.
But it can contribute to the emergence of a more distributed, multipolar and representative international system.
The strategic significance of India’s 2026 leadership may ultimately be measured not by whether BRICS becomes more confrontational, but by whether it becomes more capable.
For businesses and decision-makers, that distinction matters.
The winners in a changing global environment will not necessarily be those who predict every event.
They will be those who recognize structural change early enough to make better decisions.
That is the real value of strategic foresight.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is BRICS 2026?
BRICS 2026 refers to the 18th BRICS Summit being hosted by India in New Delhi on September 12–13, 2026, during India’s BRICS chairship.
Why is India’s BRICS chairship strategically important?
India occupies a distinctive position because it is simultaneously a major BRICS member, a major emerging economy, a significant Global South voice and an important partner of multiple major economies. This gives India an opportunity to promote practical cooperation while maintaining strategic autonomy.
Will BRICS create a common currency?
A common BRICS currency should not be treated as the central assumption. More practical areas to watch include cross-border payment connectivity, local-currency settlement and financial interoperability.
Is BRICS an anti-Western alliance?
BRICS should not automatically be described as an anti-Western alliance. Its members have different relationships with the United States and Europe and cooperate with countries outside BRICS. Its significance is better understood through economic cooperation, greater representation and the evolution of a more multipolar international system.
What could BRICS mean for businesses?
BRICS could become increasingly relevant to businesses through trade, investment, supply-chain diversification, payment systems, technology cooperation, energy and access to emerging markets.
Why is AI important to BRICS?
AI is becoming relevant not only to technology but also to productivity, economic competitiveness, infrastructure, data, skills and national strategic capability. For developing economies, access to AI capabilities could become an important part of economic sovereignty.
What should businesses watch after the BRICS Summit?
Businesses should monitor payment interoperability, trade facilitation, supply-chain developments, AI cooperation, investment mechanisms, energy and critical-resource cooperation, and the effectiveness of BRICS institutions.
About Ashok Aacharya
Ashok Aacharya — Spiritual Wellness Strategist | Strategic Forecaster & Global Trends Analyst | Vedic Astrology Researcher | Author & Speaker | Advisor to Global Leaders Since 1990
Since 1990, Ashok Aacharya has advised business leaders, entrepreneurs, professionals, public figures, and high-net-worth individuals internationally. His work combines strategic analysis, global trends, human behavior, and Vedic wisdom, with an emphasis on critical thinking and responsible interpretation. His insights have been featured in The Times of India, Business Standard, ANI, Zee News, Speaking Tree, Navbharat Times, Amar Ujala, News Nation, and other leading media.
Ancient Wisdom. Modern Strategy. Better Decisions.
